Toby Ord’s book The Precipice is a wonderful introduction to existential risks, and is worth reading for basically anyone interested in Effective Altruism, reducing suffering, or, well, human beings in general. But there is one set of claims that Ord makes that strike me as dubious, and I thought they would be worth writing about. If you don’t know anything about the book or existential risks, maybe check out Scott Alexander’s
i kind of like the approach of just throwing everything at the wall and seeing what sticks. it seems genuinely true that many different ethical systems and arguments converge in some form towards caring about x-risk, even if there are contradictions. i personally find the "option value" argument the most compelling: humanity doesn't know all that much for certain about what matters and what we should do etc. but if we don't prevent extinction then probably we'll never find out or make progress there. so given moral uncertainty, x-risk reduction is something like a minimal ethical goal for the near-term, and should be prioritized.
I would suggest we are doing a disservice to our future generations by desensitizing our youth to risk, on a grand scale. Video games are partly to blame, making our youth believe they can dodge bullets, jump off buildings, etc... Social media contributes to the problem as well, no need to risk rejection by actually go up to a girl and asking her out, just swipe right.... Participation trophies in school mitigate the risk of losing ....here, take this vaccine.... Everywhere you look society is desensitizing our youth to risk, it is no wonder much of humanity can not comprehend existential risk. Enjoy your column very much!
i kind of like the approach of just throwing everything at the wall and seeing what sticks. it seems genuinely true that many different ethical systems and arguments converge in some form towards caring about x-risk, even if there are contradictions. i personally find the "option value" argument the most compelling: humanity doesn't know all that much for certain about what matters and what we should do etc. but if we don't prevent extinction then probably we'll never find out or make progress there. so given moral uncertainty, x-risk reduction is something like a minimal ethical goal for the near-term, and should be prioritized.
I would suggest we are doing a disservice to our future generations by desensitizing our youth to risk, on a grand scale. Video games are partly to blame, making our youth believe they can dodge bullets, jump off buildings, etc... Social media contributes to the problem as well, no need to risk rejection by actually go up to a girl and asking her out, just swipe right.... Participation trophies in school mitigate the risk of losing ....here, take this vaccine.... Everywhere you look society is desensitizing our youth to risk, it is no wonder much of humanity can not comprehend existential risk. Enjoy your column very much!